Eucalipto no semiárido mineiro: uma perspectiva de cenário futuro nos municípios de Buritizeiro e São João do Paraíso

Abstract

The study analyzed the expansion of forestry in the municipalities of Buritizeiro and São João do Paraíso (Minas Gerais, Brazil), projecting future scenarios up to 2052 based on Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Networks using the MOLUSCE plugin (QGIS). Physical independent variables were selected, such as altitude, slope, proximity to water bodies, and land use data from the years 2002, 2012, and 2022, to calibrate the model. The results indicated a significant expansion of eucalyptus plantations in Buritizeiro, while in São João do Paraíso, growth stagnated after 2042. The modeling showed consistency with historical patterns and the methodology applied throughout the research. It is concluded that the methodology was effective for spatial analysis, highlighting the expansion of eucalyptus monoculture in both municipalities, with a more pronounced trend in Buritizeiro, where there is greater replacement of natural and agricultural areas. In contrast, eucalyptus expansion in São João do Paraíso is more moderate, preserving greater landscape heterogeneity.